Art Laffer weighs in as recession indicator sparks fears

Art Laffer weighs in as recession indicator sparks fears


SINCE 2007, SENDING A POTENTIAL ALARM FOR RECESSION. REAGAN ECONOMIST ART LAFFER. TYPICALLY ON AVERAGE THE STOCK MARKET PEAKS 18 MONTHS AFTER INVERSION. ECONOMY PEAKS 22 MONTHS AFTER INVERY. NOT NECESSARILY RECESSION AFTER THE CORNER. SOME ARE SAYING NOT NECESSARILY WILL BE RECESSION AT ALL THIS TIME?>>I DON’T SEE ANY REASON FOR RECESSION RIGHT NOW UNLESS SOMETHING IN THE FUTURE THAT DEVELOPS QUITE MATERIAL LIKE A TRADE WAR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. RIGHT NOW, I DON’T SEE ANY CHANGE IN POLICIES. THE TAX BILL IS WORKING NICELY. MONETARY POLICY A LITTLE SLOW CATCHING UP. THEY SHOULD DROP THE RATE COUPLE, HALF A PERCENT OR SO IF YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THIS. LET ME SAY, TRADE ISSUES ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO THE MARKET, AND MARKET IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO THE FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY. JUST THE DROP WE’VE SEEN FROM THE PEAK TO RIGHT NOW, CHARLES IS A LOSS IN U.S. WEALTH OF ABOUT $1.7 TRILLION. WHICH IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY. IT PUTS INTO PERSPECTIVE ALL OF, THAT IS ONLY 30 BILLION. WE LOST 1.7 TRILLION IN WEALTH BECAUSE OF I BELIEVE FEAR ABOUT THE TRADING MARKET, WHAT IS GOING ON IN CHINA. SO WHEN I LOOK AT THIS WORLD, I DON’T THINK WE’RE IN A RECESSION. I DON’T THINK WE’RE GOING INTO ONE BUT IF THE TRADE THING WERE TO COME AROUND TO BE FOOD, I THINK WE COULD PULL OUT OF THIS VERY QUICKLY. CONNELL: ARE YOU SAYING 30 BILLION JUSTIFIES $1.7 TRILLION IN LOSSES?>>WELL THAT IS WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE. EXTRA 10% ON 300 BILLION IN TRADE WITH CHINA. UNLESS I DID MY MATH WRONG. CHARLES: THAT IS THAT A LEGITIMATE FEAR, CORRELATION THOUGH?>>I THINK ABOUT 1 1/2 TRILLION. CHARLES: RIGHT IS. I LOOK AT WILSHIRE 5000 EVERY DAY. I DO THE MATH MYSELF. I’M SAY SOMETHING THAT LEGITIMATE CORRELATION, ART? SHOULD IT BE DOWN THAT MUCH OR IS THIS AN OVERREACTION?>>I DON’T KNOW DEPENDS WHAT HAPPENS IN THE THE FUTURE WITH THE TRADE DEAL. IF THE TRADE DEAL COMES THROUGH IT IS WAY OVERREACTING. IF THE TRADE DEAL DOESN’T COME THROUGH AND THERE IS TRADE WAR, MAY BE OVERREACTING. YOU LOOK WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE SMOOT-HAWLEY. I DON’T MEAN TO TALK ABOUT SMOOT-HAWLEY. THE MARKET FELL 90%. WHEN I WAS IN WHITE HOUSE 1970 TO 1972, DEVALUATION OF DOLLAR, 10% IMPORT SURCHARGE, JOB DEVELOPMENT CREDIT, EXCLUDED FOREIGN AID, WE HAD PROTECTIONIST ADMINISTRATION, THE STOCK MARKET FELL BY 50%. WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT HISTORICALLY TRADE HAS A HUGE, HUGE NET EFFECT, WAY BEYOND WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE SIZE OF HOW MUCH TRADE THERE IS. IT IS REALLY VERY IMPORTANT TO MARKETS. ONE OF YOUR PREVIOUS GUESTS SAID, IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME FOR THE BOOM TO OCCUR, THAT IS NOT WHAT CAUSES RECESSIONS. RECESSIONS ARE CAUSED BY POLICY ACTIONS. THEY CAN OCCUR IN TAXES, OCCUR IN SPENDING. OCCUR IN REGULATIONS. THEY CAN INCUR BECAUSE OF TRADE POLICY. THAT IS ONLY THING I SEE WE HAVE A BIG ISSUE ABOUT RIGHT NOW. WE’RE WITH CHINA. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE A GREAT FREE TRADE DEAL DONE WITH CHINA THAT WOULD BOOST THE MARKET BY WELL OVER 5,000 POINT, THIS MORNING WE WERE GREETED WITH REALLY POOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT OF GERMANY, POOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT OF CHINA. SO-CALLED GLOBAL RECESSION. THAT IS NOT PLAYING A ROLE AT ALL? EVERY TIME WE GET NUMBERS OUT OF CHINA, IT SENT OUR BOND YIELDS DIVING LOWER AS MONEY CONTINUES TO COME FROM AROUND THE WORLD, POURING INTO OUR 10-YEAR BOND, WHICH MIGHT BE SKEWING HISTORICAL REFERENCE THAT WE USE. MAYBE THIS TIME IS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT. WE’VE NEVER BEEN IN A WORLD, ART, WITH $17 TRILLION WITH A T, OF NEGATIVE YIELDING RATES AND ALL THESE GLOBAL ECONOMIES GOING DOWN AT SAME TIME EXCEPT AMERICA.>>THE REST OF THE WORLD IS IN RECESSION, THEY’RE IN VERY BAD SHAPE. THAT DOES IMPACT US, CHARLES. YOU’RE COMPLETELY CORRECT. WE’VE BEEN FIGHTING AGAINST IT BECAUSE WE’VE BEEN DOING VERY GOOD POLICIES WHILE THEY HAVE NOT BEEN DOING GOOD POLICIES. WHY WE ARE PERFORMING WELL AND THEY ARE NOT PERFORMING WELL. THEY ARE DRAG US DOWN, THEY ARE DRAG US DOWN WITH INTEREST RATES. WHEN YOU HAVE NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE YIELDS AROUND THE WORLD, HOW CAN U.S. YIELDS BE HIGHER THAN REST OF THE WORLD. OUR POLICIES MADE US VERY RESILIENT. CHARLES: ART, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. WE ALWAYS BRING YOU IN.>>CHARLES, YOU’RE GREAT. IT IS MY BIRTHDAY TODAY. DIDN’T WISH ME HAPPY BIRTHDAY.>>LOOK AMAZING FOR 38.>>I’M GOING INTO MY 80th YEAR. CAN YOU BELIEVE IT. CHARLES: YOU’RE FOR REAL. YOU’RE A GREAT GUEST.

69 Comments

  • tommy khammaloun says:

    Wait. This guy was wrong in 2007

  • justin rok says:

    Recessions and depressions always happens under republicans and democrats gets elected after and clean up their mess they leave

  • justin rok says:

    Tax cuts never work always leave to bust

  • will ty says:

    Every recession and depressions have came from Republican so how the fuch do Republicans keep getting elected

  • Al Lex says:

    Please stop lying! There will not be any recession!!!! This economy will be booming again in the next 3 months… even higher than before!!!

  • dm 34280 says:

    1. Manufacturing (red flag) — There has been a sharp deceleration in manufacturing in 2019. Hiring has flatlined after having one of its best years last year since the late 1990s. Output is slowing, and, especially alarming, manufacturing sentiment has tumbled to levels that almost signal a recession.  2. Trucking (yellow to red flag) — Nearly every good sold in the United States touches a truck at some point, which is why trucking shipment data can be revealing. After a stellar 2018, shipments have plunged during the past six months, according to the Cass Freight Index.  3. Business spending (yellow flag) — Business leaders are nervous, according to most metrics of sentiment in the corporate sector. But the question is how is that translating into decision-making? This year evidence is growing that companies are pulling back on investment spending. Just keep hope alive in the leader of U.S. White Nationalist.

  • Kenneth Webb says:

    We are in trade wars.

  • justin rok says:

    This guys has been wrong everytime like in 2007 when he said there wasnt no recession coming and Tax cuts never paid for

  • Kenneth Webb says:

    “Recessions are caused by policy actions”

    So folks running out of money to spend has -0- to do with it? 😂😂😂

  • Saint Michael says:

    We’re a little over a year away from the Presidential election and the MSM is pushing a recession. What a coincidence!!! I guess we should listen to the Democrats when they say that they’re praying for a recession.

  • Delta Construction Bear says:

    Oh my God the Sky is Falling. Complete joke. We know b4 the 2020 election the God Awful people known as the Democrats will try and ruin the economy. They are truly sick people. Even the RINOs at fox seem gitty about it.

  • Better Run says:

    You’re catching up toTrudeau He keeps spending Canadians money Like he earned it himself

  • We the People says:

    If you can't beat President Trump on the economy, then claim there is going to be a recession.

  • Narek Begian says:

    When are you going to pay Peter Schiff?

  • Veteran Stacker says:

    Ha ha ha get rid of this fool and bring back Peter Schiff.

  • S Bryant says:

    Probably a manufactured fake panic to make people panic, they'd sell their own grandmother to make a buck and you know it. Sad

  • Truthsabre7 says:

    Art you never paid Peter Schiff to Penny you owe him.

  • Elizabeth Zacharias says:

    I remember when they said there was nothing to worry about when the housing market crashed

  • Bob C says:

    But Art wouldn't you agree China need the US markets far far more than the US needs China! And that is the major point that seems to be totally missed by these ball less traders on Wall Street.

  • Damian Grouse says:

    80 years old?

  • Lion P says:

    A TRUE LEADER HAS THE CONFIDENCE TO STAND ALONE
    HE HAS THE COURAGE TO MAKE TOUGH DECISIONS
    THE COMPASSION TO LISTEN TO THE NEEDS OF OTHERS
    HE DOES NOT SET OUT TO BE A LEADER
    BUT BECOMES ONE BY THE EQUALITY OF HIS ACTIONS
    AND THE INTEGRITY OF HIS INTENT.
    THIS IS AMERICA'S CHOSEN PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP !

  • alan bird says:

    Congress could quit spending like drunken sailors. That would help minimizing chances of a recession.

  • Paul Artz says:

    Average interest rate = 1% profit + .5% for losses + inflation rate. With no inflation interest rate are about where they should be!!

  • Jack Flash says:

    Feds raised rates right after Trump came in knowing that there would be a downturn 18 to 24 months later. Viola.. here we are.

  • DOC HOLLIDAY says:

    Seems like every time they drop the rates it crashes?!

  • Infinit 0 says:

    You know I hate when someone is telling me, "it's raining", when they are pissing on my head. We are past a recession, this is a depression. When you are 21 trillion in debt and your dollar is fiat, what the fck is that. Wake ☝!!!

  • ZNEOPEC says:

    48 years later ⏰ Return to GOLD Standard!

  • Lana JDL says:

    OMG the condiments from china might go up!!! We hat are we going to do ????? Stop buying Chinese products WE DON'T NEED THEM !!!!! WE CAN DO WITHOUT CRAP FROM CHINA

  • itruck2009 says:

    Wake up Americans!!! Main stream media doesn't want to scare you.

  • 101 Life says:

    What the hell these news anchors keep interrupting the guests from sharing? Why invite them in the first place if you think you know better?

  • Dewey Tucker says:

    About the truth. The market manipulators are the globalists in America who have far too much invested in China. Their “Red Wave” that was taking over the world & making them mega bucks, has been knocked flat by President Trump. Trying to crash our stock market won’t kept companies in China. MAGA!

  • RICHARD deB says:

    R u kidding me. This guy is clueless. So is the idiot who gave him the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Totally undeserved.

  • Johnny Freedom says:

    What a joke, Medal of Freedom "economist" Art Laffable who didn't see the housing bubble and still owes Peter Schiff a penny and an apology. The Keynesians at Fox "business" wouldn't know a free market if Trump's $1+ trillion annual national debt hit them over the head.

  • GrassFedMeats says:

    Supply siders are always half wrong. Funny how they don't show the short term bonds!

  • Jannie Meyer says:

    The Dems and their Bankers will try with the Fed to dispose of Trump by creating a financial crises like they did with Bush.

  • Mary Hernandez says:

    Wall Street is such a scaredy cat. They hear the sinister fake media lie about a fake recession and right away they freak out.

  • J P says:

    Laffer doesn't see much of anything. He still owes that penny to Peter Schiff, for loosing the bet last recession. What a Joke

  • Hue Janus says:

    Economists are always right….when looking back and explaining what happened.

  • MITCH BAGE says:

    looks to me like the FED has started working for the DEMS

  • Straight Whitemale says:

    Over reaction. Liberals are doing their best to sway the economy. I am not worried, could be a buying opportunity.

  • Radioactive Jman says:

    What idiots we have trying to give us advice on the economic woes of the world saying, "All is well." We are over 240 trillion in world debt people!!! At some point we must pay for it whichever way we can.

  • Andrew Womble says:

    The important thing FOX is how do we frame the narrative? When the economy is good we give 100% of the credit to Trump. Now things are slowing down we need to make sure that people don't give Trump bad credit for this. Can we retroactively blame Obama or Mexicans?

  • Lore Strahan says:

    Trump may not win next year if there is a recession.

  • mehdy huss says:

    We are already feeling the recession and it’s going to be huge. 1st China gave up on trusting USA and is moving on to develop its own Smart phone OS. No more deals with farmers and they ain’t coming back to you when you threaten countries what do you expect. And new currency on the way and dollar is collapsing. That’s the truth so no matter how many clowns who defend this system say it’s going to be fine. It won’t, the bubble is too big this time and there aren’t enough bailout money.

  • muster seeds says:

    well, want recession then send jobs to other countries then you fell recession

  • willstoz says:

    Laffer is a laugh!!! He also said 2008 wouldn’t happen. 🤡🤡🤡🤡💩💩💩💩

  • Ed Lancer says:

    Hannity and Fredo
    U P A Tree
    k I S S I N G
    And lemondrop gives him a
    Sancho.💩

  • nicklenose01 says:

    Dow Jones lower today than it was 19 months ago. The economy was the only thing Drumpf had going for him, now that's going down the hole too. Bye Bye Donnie.

  • chito Im says:

    Some how this obamas fault

  • Veteran Stacker says:

    Is that Peter I hear on my TV? Why yes it is. Thanks for listening Fox Business. Have a good day.

  • Jose Anibal Sotto says:

    Resesion? The only the bond market is afjusting!!

  • Die Wan Goq says:

    two blind men

    sure dont see any problems

    ha ha ha

  • Haiti Destine says:

    These guys are dumbasses. We Are in the middle of a trade war, what do you mean if I trade you or develops in the future?? 🙄

  • singerManandWife says:

    Art Laffer pay up! You still owe Peter Schiff that penny!

  • Dark Room says:

    This is what denial of your debt market looks like, kids! Leave it to Fox to help bury heads in the sand all They way up to the crash.

  • Frjim T says:

    my gosh, i saw a red light on the highway today…. there must be a recession coming…. 🙄

  • youngsamuel1 says:

    Art Laughter

  • Cary Clan says:

    I wonder how Trump will blame the Democrats for this one? Trump has to bow to the Chinese, he tried to take on the Chinese alone…he’s a political moron.

  • Lores says:

    Laffer has no CREDITABILITY ,use the internet and you will find him poo! pooing the warnings of the 2008 meltdown from Peter Schiff. So who does FOX ask as their expert the guy who was wrong.

  • dane kelly says:

    Dont believe the hype…..

  • The Dude says:

    LOL. 😂I was going to point out that he still owes Peter Schiff a penny, but others already beat me to it.

  • Agnes Connell says:

    Hi from Britain they are saying if we leave the great EU our finances will crash and it's all the people's fault that voted to leave the EU and Boris Johnson needs to be kicked out of office so you people in America stand firm behind your president and we will stand firm with Boris we need to stand up together and fight GLOBALIST God BLESS

  • The Dude says:

    If we do go into a recession, it's vital Trump win a re-election because a socialist would make things worse.

  • vegtheman says:

    This guy is a joke. Maybe he should make another bet with Peter Schiff and this time pay up.

  • Kane Huff says:

    Gee isn't it funny how much the msm likes to cover any drop in the market like it's the end of the world? It's almost like they want a recession to happen. It's almost like they are traitors who want power so much they are willing to hurt average Americans to get it.

  • Sydfreed says:

    Happy birthday

  • xyzzyxf says:

    I hope the market crashed and see those greedy suckers cry me a river

  • Brian Kay says:

    I had a dream last night. It was about a stampede of bulls coming over a hill, and then there was a huge number of bears lurking in the woods. Can someone explain this dream?

  • Smitty D says:

    This Art Laffer clown was saying the same thing in 2007-2008 about how the economy was great and wasn't going into a recession. He was wrong then and he's even more wrong now. Pay Peter Schiff the penny you owe him for the bet you made in 2008 about how the economy wasn't going into a recession clown.

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